A Novel Non-invasive Index of Cardiopulmonary Reserve for the Prediction of Failure of Weaning From Mechanical Ventilation

Purpose: To develop an easy-to-implement prediction index of weaning failure for ICU patients. Materials and methods: We developed a prediction index modifying respiratory exchange ratio (RER), Mod-RER, a parameter measured during the cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET) based on respiratory quotient. The Mod-RER index is the ratio of partial pressure of CO2 in central venous blood over the difference of partial pressure of O2 in arterial and central venous blood (Mod-RER=PcvCO2/PaO2-PcvO2, where PcvCO2 = partial pressure of CO2 in central venous blood, PaO2 = partial pressure of O2 in arterial blood, and PcvO2 = partial pressure of O2 in central venous blood). We prospectively tested its predictive value, compared to other indices of weaning outcome, in an observational study of difficult-to-wean ICU patients. Results:Mod-RER index increased significantly only in failed trials and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis for prediction of outcome based on Mod-RER index change had an area under the curve (AUC) 0.80 (p<0.001). Mod-RER change exhibited the highest sensitivity (84.6%) and specificity (78.1%) among the tested indices, with the optimal cut-off of 19.3%. Comparison of AUCs did not reach statistical significance (p=0.106). Conclusions: We conclude that Mod-RER index is an accurate, easy-to-use prediction tool of weaning failure, useful in decision making of timely extubation of ICU patients, especially in the demanding era of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.